Can someone say Freedom?
07 September, 2021
Aiden Heke, Chief Executive Officer, Decision Inc. Australia
As with all good analytics, the moment you examine one aspect of a situation, a multitude of additional questions arise. We recently posted an article on the data, analytics and risk management lessons from COVID and highlighted how quickly scenarios and therefore your analytics approach needs to adapt. We provided risk management considerations from our alliance partner ABM Risk Partnership and Anthony Wilson, one of the founding partners followed this up with an article on the multiple facets of a mandated vaccination approach.
A number of you have asked for a focus on the future, the what-if scenarios leveraging our current analytics understanding of COVID. In line with these interest areas, this article will focus on three related aspects.
- When will NSW hit 70%, 80%, and 90% full vaccination levels based on our current vaccination rate?
- What will be the residual impact on our healthcare system if we remain 30%, 20%, or 10% unvaccinated?
- When do we expect the economic recovery and based on the last 21 months of data, how strong will it be?
- And most importantly, when will we see the end of homeschooling…freedom!
This is our ‘get out of jail’ card. COVID has been one of the most unpredictable events in our lifetime and we could get this 100% wrong! That being said, we are confident in the underlying data, analytics, and thought process of our team.
Our ‘Freedom’ Dashboard shows encouraging projections with 70% second dose occurring on the 15th of October, 80% on the 20th of October, and 90% by the 19th of November.
This assumes we maintain our vaccination momentum and have no laggards. However, if we have a recalcitrant tail of slow vaxers what does this mean to our health system?
This analysis is moving fast and complicated to calculate because although the number of people hospitalised is reasonably predictable, the period of hospitalisation varies. Looking at our numbers today and the current projections, we see the following level of hospital, ICU and ventilator occupancy in our Dashboard called ‘Consequences’.
If we take our infection rate analysis forward, we see the peak projection; the high point of this graph occurring in the last week of September.
Our forecasts see 2,537 patients hospitalised, 483 in ICU and 186 requiring ventilation at this peak point.
The economic recovery analysis is critical for economic recovery planning. Our views have been formed using the last 20 months of data and assuming Q2 for Australia will see negative economic growth of 2.5%.
The dashboard below called the ‘Light of the tunnel’ shows a strong surge sometime in late October underpinned by the normal injection of activity in the run into Christmas.
What does this mean for businesses? The context of the Covid risk continues to change and will continue to do so leading up to and well beyond the relaxation of restrictions. The ability to recognise and adapt to those changes in context is an integral part of effective risk management. The changes ahead present significant threats and opportunities, and the ability of businesses to adapt their strategies to respond to those changes will be the difference between success and failure for many. Key questions may include:
- What will our stance be on vaccinations for staff? Will we require our clientele to be fully vaccinated if attending our premises?
- What plans do we have in place to respond to a positive case visiting one of our sites?
- What opportunities are there for our business as each phase (70/80/90%) is achieved?
The important thing to remember in answering these questions is to consider them from a risk perspective – ideally, with the risk function heavily involved in the decision-making process. This ensures that risk is considered from both sides – opportunities and threats.
What does this mean for our freedom? Dr Kerry Chant and Premier Gladys Berejiklian continue to maintain consistent messaging – greater vaccination rates bring greater freedoms – therefore managing our expectations of when we can expect to see some easing of restrictions. If we were cynical, we might argue ‘out performance’ of current dates would be a political masterstroke. We believe this is more about managing morale. We see homeschooling will come to an end sometime in the weeks of October in a rolling fashion based on LGA vaccination rates and school years. This will fuel a back to work reinvigoration of the economy and our lives. Freedom!
If you have read this article and realised, you need these types of insight in your organisation but don’t know where to start, consider a Decision Inc. Analytics Visioning workshop. We provide a simple framework to understand how to join your business and analytics strategy and build the right plan to take advantage of the data gold mine you are undoubtedly sitting on within your business.
Contact Decision Inc. today at firstname.lastname@example.org
or phone us via +61 2 9135 2968